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(October 12)Modeling the Transmission Dynamics of Zika Virus
Oct 12, 2016

Title:

Modeling  the Transmission Dynamics of Zika Virus

Lecturer:

Prof. Shigui RUAN

Time:

15:20, October 12,  2016

Venue:

206, Section II, Xinyuan Building, South Campus

Lecturer  Profile

Prof. Shigui RUAN received his doctoral degreefrom University of  Alberta in 1992, then he became a post doctor in Fields Institute for Research  in Mathematical Sciences and McMaster University. He joined University of Miami  in 2002 and currently works as a professor there. His research interests  include differential equations, dynamical systems and mathematical biology: (i)  I am interested in studying nonlinear dynamics of some kinds of differential  equations, such as the center manifold theory and Hopf bifurcation in  semilinear evolution equations, multiple-parameter bifurcations in delay  equations, and traveling waves in nonlocal reaction-diffusion systems, which  have significant applications in biology and medicine. (ii) I am also  interested in modeling and studying transmission dynamics of some infectious  diseases (for instance, malaria, Rift Valley Fever in Egypt, Hepatitis B virus,  Schistosomiasis, human rabies in China, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome  (SARS), West Nile virus in US, etc.) and antibiotic-resistant bacteria  infection in hospital and community. (iii) I have been trying to model some  specific medical and biological problems such as the interaction of tumor cells  and immune system, hematopoiesis process with applications to chronic  myelogenous leukemia, the effect of seasonal harvesting on predator-prey  models, immune response to HIV and malaria infections, etc.

Lecture  Abstract

The  ongoing Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic poses a major global public health emergency  as it has been reported in more than 60 countries worldwide, including China  and USA. It is well-known that ZIKV is spread by Aedes mosquitoes, recent  studies show that ZIKV can also be transmitted via sexual contact and cases of  sexually transmitted ZIKV of the current outbreak have been confirmed in  several countries. In this talk we first present a mathematical model to  investigate the impact of mosquito-borne transmission and sexual transmission  on prevention and control of ZIKV and use the model to fit the ZIKV data up to  February 2016 in Brazil, Colombia, and El Salvador. Our result indicates that  sexual transmission increases the risk of infection and epidemic size and  prolongs the outbreak. Then we will introduce a second model to describe how  Zika virus can be imported, established and spread in new territories by  international travel. In order to prevent and control the transmission of ZIKV,  it must be treated as not only a mosquito-borne disease but also a sexually transmitted  disease.

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